It’s like tariffs all over again.
IDC said this week that preliminary fourth-quarter global PC sales grew 9.6 percent year over year, reaching a total of 76.4 million units. But those sales weren’t quite real: They were PCs that were built and sold before the ongoing memory crunch and any tariffs worsen.
A year ago, IDC also found that the PC market experienced positive growth, as vendors rushed PCs out the door and into retailers hands before the Trump administration tariffs kicked in. That, combined with the lingering effects of the Windows 10 upgrade cycle, helped push sales upwards.
“IDC expects that the PC market will be far different in 12 months given how quickly the memory situation is evolving,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice-president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, in a statement.“Beyond the obvious pressure on prices of systems, already announced by certain manufacturers, we might also see PC memory specifications be lowered on average to preserve memory inventory on hand. The year ahead is shaping up to be extremely volatile.”
The difference is that tariffs were and are a uniquely American phenomenon, constraining U.S. PC growth. Throughout 2025, for example, IDC marked U.S. PC growth that ended the year at 4 percent versus 14 percent in the Europe and Middle East region.
“Memory shortages are affecting the entire industry, and the impact will likely reshape market dynamics over the next two years,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, in a statement. “Large consumer electronics brands are well positioned to leverage their scale and memory allocations to capture shares from smaller and regional vendors. However, the severity of the shortage raises the risk that smaller brands may not survive, and consumers, particularly DIY enthusiasts, may delay purchases or shift their spending to other devices or experiences.”
IDC has said before that it expects the average price of a PC to rise in 2026. Now, the firm added that it believes that PC makers will push harder to sell premium and mid-range systems to help offset the cost of memory.
IDC named Lenovo as its preliminary winner in terms of shipments, selling 70.8 million PCs throughout 2025, up 14.5 percent from a year ago, and capturing 24.9 percent of the market. HP and Dell finished second and third, respectively, with 20.2 percent and 14.4 percent of the market.
