Tariffs and Windows 10 transition send PC sales on a choppy course
PC shipments in the United States are weathering both a boom and a bust. On one hand, some are trying to buy up new PCs before the Windows 10 transition occurs in October. But on the other hand, an early surge in tariff-driven purchases has slowed sales later in the year.
According to Canalys, U.S. PC sales slipped 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2025 to 18.6 million units, as the market worked through a small glut of PCs caused by tariffs. Even so, the company predicts that PC sales should grow, spurred on by the Windows 11 transition. Total PC sales for 2025 in the U.S. should be 71.040 million units, a 2.6 percent increase from last year.
The Windows 10 to Windows 11 transition has been made milder by Microsoft’s concessions. Though the company spent much of last year trumpeting the need to move on from Windows 10, it has also introduced measures such as turning on Windows Backup, or “paying” 1,000 Microsoft Reward points, to extend the Windows 10 support window by a year, for free.
That’s all contributed to a ho-hum attitude towards the Windows 10 end-of-life, not helped by consumer concerns about the economy.
“Economic changes are likely to impact consumer spending throughout the rest of the year,” said Greg Davis, a Canalys analyst. “Between persistent inflation and weak job reports in recent months, more consumers are exhibiting cautious spending, and premium electronics are not being prioritized as much as essentials like food and energy expenses. Despite the approaching Windows 10 end-of-support and increasing awareness, consumers in the US are more willing to wait until their PCs need to be replaced due to greatly diminished performance or hardware failures.”
In the United States, Canalys predicts overall PC sales could increase 3.5 percent in 2026 to 73.518 million shipments, before falling 3.7 percent in 2027 to 70.793 million. For consumer PCs, the firm expects sales to dip by 3.9 percent in 2025 to 25.284 million units, then grow 5.4 percent in 2026 to 26.651 million. In 2027, consumer PC sales are predicted to fall again by 2.8 percent to 25.913 million.
