Analyst firm IDC said that memory shortages and other obstacles are proving to be more challenging to overcome than previously thought, prompting the firm to lower its PC forecast for 2026 and to declare PC bargains essentially dead.
The firm identified a bright spot, but not for consumers: the rising prices will help contribute to revenue growth.
Last November, IDC predicted that PC sales would fall 2.4 percent this year. The firm revised its forecasts on Thursday to predict PC unit sales will fall by 11.3 percent instead. It also left room for them to fall further.
“The overall tech industry, as well as many others, continues to face uncontrollable headwinds that, when compounded, result in massive disruption,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president of IDC Devices and Consumer, in a statement. “The lists of industry and geopolitical events that continue to grow is making decision‑making—and even survival in some sectors—nearly impossible. What has turned all of this from a million‑dollar question into a trillion‑dollar question is the complete uncertainty around when these pressures will subside.”
The problem, as IDC noted, is that its prediction was made before President Trump ordered a joint attack on Iran in conjunction with Israel. In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for shipping crude oil. The resulting shortages have caused gas prices to soar in the United States and elsewhere, which will increase transportation costs.
All of that will increase the strain on PC costs, which IDC sees (as others have) persisting for years. Gartner was first to declare budget PCs dead; now IDC has followed suit by basically saying that PC deals will disappear. Mercury Research has said that we’re moving to a PC economy based as much on availability as price. (There are PC deals to be had, however — here’s how to score one.)
“The era of bargain-priced PCs and tablets is behind us for now, as rising ASPs and component costs shift the market’s balance of power,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, in a statement. “Memory shortages will persist well into 2027. While we anticipate some easing of prices beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, we expect a new normal defined by structurally higher ASPs and a corresponding softening in long-term demand.”